Welcome to October! The month where we have multiple sports being played - baseball, football, basketball and hockey all at the same time! In this edition of Market Watch, we are looking at the 3rd quarter of 2024, which includes the months of July, August, and September. There are all these sports available to us right now, dividing our attention, and the housing market is acting in much the same way. Since there are more homes on the market, the buyer pool is thinned out. If we were a TV network we could say ratings are down, but does that mean total viewership, or the number of active buyers has changed? Or are the same number of people just spread out over the multitude of opportunities in the East Bay?
The summer slowdown definitely impacted this quarter’s numbers. Prices have dropped across the board compared to Q2 of this year. But year over year, average sale price and average list price have remained relatively flat. So are we on the precipice of a meltdown like the quarter over quarter numbers suggest? Or do we find ourselves in the normal ebb and flow of the annual housing cycle?
The big concern we have is that contracts are not keeping up with new listings. In Oakland, for example, there are twice as many listings as new contracts in the 3rd quarter, and as a result, average days on market are up to 34. Typically in our area, when days on market reach 30 or more, it’s considered to be a buyer-friendly market. This has been holding true for us for homes under $1.5M. The most competitive market is $1,500,000 and up. Multiple offers, big jumps in sale price vs list price, and fewer days on market than average. And why do you think that is? If you said interest rates and the cost to borrow money, you hit the nail on the head. Most folks searching for housing below $1.5M are using a mortgage, and interest rates are still elevated above 6%.
When rates come down, we expect there to be more folks entering the market, but until then, it’s really in the buyers' hands. We have multiple tools available to our clients for pricing homes so you don’t get caught overpaying. Or having a home that sits on the market unnecessarily. If you have a question about a specific area or property, please reach out to us today!
Eli and Bill
Q3 over Q2 Housing Statistics
Alameda County, Contra Costa County, Oakland, Berkeley, Martinez, and Pleasant Hill
Q3 2024 over Q3 2023 Housing Stats
Alameda County, Contra Costa County, Oakland, Berkeley, Martinez, and Pleasant Hill
